Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d57…2a1f weather 1419 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$37 (+0%) realized +$34 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1369W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day36.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$28
14 days+$40
30 days+$54
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 199 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 1% -9.1%
≤30d 632 +0.2% -9.3% 99% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1381 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
all 1381 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,235
Realized+$34
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1369 / 12
Open positions38
Markets (closed)1381 / 1419
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day36.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 38 History 1381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C or higher on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? No 100¢ 98¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 17? No 99¢ 98¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 16? Jun 17 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 69°F or below on June 16? Jun 17 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 16? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 17 $69 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 17 $40 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C or higher on June 16 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 16? Jun 17 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 16? Jun 17 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 16? Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on June 16? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 56-57°F on Jun Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 55°F or below on June Jun 16 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $20 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 60-61°F on Jun Jun 16 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 15? Jun 16 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 15? Jun 16 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 27°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C or below on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 28°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $25 2h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 5h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 6h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 6h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 7h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $20 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $10 8h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $20 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,235.43 · official $1,235.43 (match) · 3500 history records