Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:45:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d57…8109 crypto 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$75 (+4%) realized +$77 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%12W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$268now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$52
sports 36% +$143
crypto 16% −$118
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -5.2%
≤30d 26 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -5.2%
≤90d 26 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -5.2%
all 26 -8.9% -17.6% 46% 46% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.6% 46% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -25.5% 46% -14.3%
15% -32.7% 31% -22.6%
20% -39.3% 31% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -44% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$20 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$268
Realized+$77
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses12 / 14
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage2d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? No 79¢ 78¢ $270 $268 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $211 +$68 +32%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $431 −$8 -2%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $161 +$44 +27%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $305 −$40 -13%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $103 +$101 +98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 20 $112 −$112 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $19 +$10 +54%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 +$9 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$2 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 19 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$53 +202%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 19 $26 +$18 +71%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $272 40m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners SELL Under 100¢ $280 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $211 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $207 9h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $211 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $1 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $216 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $220 12h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY No 78¢ $161 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $175 22h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 33¢ $203 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 16¢ $92 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 62¢ $90 23h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 25h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $30 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $85 25h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 26h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $51 28h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $19 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 19¢ $19 37h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 38h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 38h
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 41h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $268.29 · official $268.29 (match) · 64 history records