Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d55…4b43 crypto 382 markets active 16h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$544 (-2%) realized −$544 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate84%321W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$64
7 days+$193
14 days+$213
30 days−$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$693
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +6.3% -3.8% 100% 3% -3.8%
≤30d 73 -0.9% -10.4% 90% 38% -11.3%
≤90d 382 -4.8% -13.9% 84% 49% -12.3%
all 382 -4.8% -13.9% 84% 49% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 49% -12.3%
10% -22.1% 8% -20.7%
15% -29.6% 1% -28.4%
20% -36.5% 0% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$52 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$544
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses321 / 61
Open positions0
Markets (closed)382 / 382
History coverage77d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 382 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET Jun 16 $197 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $181 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET Jun 16 $210 +$13 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $16 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $80 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $321 +$20 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $39 +$5 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $140 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $40 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10AM ET Jun 12 $145 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9AM ET Jun 12 $32 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $88 +$6 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $121 +$8 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $37 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $20 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1PM ET Jun 11 $168 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $120 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8AM ET Jun 11 $96 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $80 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $113 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $138 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9AM ET Jun 10 $96 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7AM ET Jun 10 $181 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10PM ET Jun 10 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5PM ET Jun 09 $6 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1PM ET Jun 09 $161 +$11 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9AM ET Jun 09 $143 +$9 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 03 $40 −$40 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 03 $81 +$9 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 03 $121 −$119 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 02 $79 +$13 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 02 $12 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 02 $40 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 02 $160 +$18 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 02 $161 +$25 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $120 +$19 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 02 $40 +$4 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 02 $39 +$6 +15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 02 $120 +$14 +12%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $4 −$4 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $8 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $20 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1840 history records