Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:59:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d54…16fa other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$160 (+35%) realized +$160 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Kalshi-fit17%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% +$52
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤30d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% +0.7%
≤90d 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% +0.7%
all 6 +2.0% -7.7% 50% 50% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 50% +0.7%
10% -16.5% 50% -9.0%
15% -24.6% 50% -17.8%
20% -32.0% 0% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$30 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.57 per $1 lost it wins $1.57
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit17%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $89 −$88 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $95 +$37 +40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $131 +$60 +46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $4 −$1 -19%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $90 +$45 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 80¢ $48 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $49 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 3h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $132 14h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $95 24h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $191 39h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $3 41h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 45h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $131 45h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $90 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 12 history records