Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:45:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d54…b73b crypto 271 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$97 (-1%) realized −$7 · open −$90
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR68%break-even
Win rate70%189W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$45est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$33now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$235
7 days+$290
14 days+$35
30 days−$225
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$231
sports 23% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +68%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +19.1% +7.8% 75% 50% +6.8%
≤30d 261 -6.9% -15.8% 70% 68% -11.6%
≤90d 270 -4.4% -13.5% 70% 68% -11.5%
all 270 -4.4% -13.5% 70% 68% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 68% -11.5%
10% -21.8% 53% -20.0%
15% -29.4% 16% -27.7%
20% -36.3% 9% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$34 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$33
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$90
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses189 / 81
Est. fees paid−$45
Open positions1
Markets (closed)270 / 271
History coverage31d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 20¢ 6¢ $123 $33 −$90 (-73%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 19 $279 −$275 -99%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $614 +$40 +6%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $496 +$254 +51%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $229 +$271 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$11 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$7 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$6 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 +$5 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$8 -97%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $112 −$62 -55%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $213 −$211 -99%
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 09 $99 −$97 -98%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 08 $49 −$48 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 08 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 08 $9 +$2 +27%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters Londo Jun 07 $82 +$173 +212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 07 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 07 $61 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 07 $61 +$20 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 07 $37 +$10 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 07 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 07 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 06 $61 +$18 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 06 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $61 +$19 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 06 $61 +$17 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 06 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 06 $61 +$18 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $62 +$43 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 06 $61 +$16 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 05 $61 +$19 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 8¢ $25 0m
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $101 1h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Team Vitality 55¢ $279 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 66¢ $161 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 66¢ $65 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 66¢ $21 23h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 58¢ $215 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $58 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $354 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 32¢ $166 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL EDward Gaming 32¢ $26 24h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 33¢ $201 25h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $201 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $4 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $18 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $9 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $8 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $53 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $39 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $42 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $70 4d
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 66¢ $53 4d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 45¢ $229 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $8 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $8 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.00 · official $39.00 · 495 history records