Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:22:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8D 0x8d54…6ce7 other 61 markets active 1h ago coverage 152d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$6,944 (-23%) realized −$6,944 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate66%40W / 21L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$494per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$2,633
14 days−$7,806
30 days−$7,292
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% −$8,825
crypto 13% +$1,402
sports 3% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -2.0% -11.4% 74% 53% -30.8%
≤30d 59 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 49% -31.6%
≤90d 59 -1.4% -10.8% 66% 49% -31.6%
all 61 -2.8% -12.1% 66% 48% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 48% -31.7%
10% -20.5% 33% -38.3%
15% -28.2% 26% -44.2%
20% -35.2% 21% -49.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$551) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$182 vs −$699 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6,944
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses40 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)61 / 61
History coverage152d
Avg bet$494
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 61 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 23 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 23 $119 +$13 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 23 $118 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 23 $117 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$16 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 23 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 23 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $74 +$18 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $60 +$12 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $32 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$6 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $16 +$10 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$7 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$2 +54%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $3 +$1 +45%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $846 −$842 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,337 −$2,495 -75%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,240 +$1,102 +49%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $758 −$747 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $680 +$81 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $506 +$174 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $329 +$177 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $36 −$16 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 19 $15 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $188 −$184 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $208 −$19 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $173 +$35 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $677 +$117 +17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $186 +$7 +4%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $102 −$101 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $551 −$449 -82%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $527 +$23 +4%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,122 −$594 -53%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $141 +$11 +8%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2,715 −$2,574 -95%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1,430 +$1,281 +90%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $822 −$807 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $484 +$339 +70%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $458 +$27 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $292 +$166 +57%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $147 +$145 +99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $456 −$310 -68%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,068 −$614 -57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3,625 −$3,606 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1,729 +$1,893 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $21 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $132 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $119 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $118 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $117 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $96 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $92 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $74 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $60 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $32 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $13 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $4 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $4 5h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 68¢ $3 7h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $846 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $841 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $3,337 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 88¢ $3,342 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $2,235 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $758 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $760 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $680 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records