Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T00:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d50…e2c1
crypto · 58 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$3 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$4 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$23
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses31 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)55 / 58
History coverage90d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 3 History 55 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 80¢ 90¢ $16 $18 +$2 (+12%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-9%)
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? No 57¢ 22¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $9 +$2 +20%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 +$2 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 +$6 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 11 $1 $0 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Apr 10 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Apr 10 $7 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Apr 10 $6 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 09 $6 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 09 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 09 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 09 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 09 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 08 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 08 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Apr 07 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Apr 07 $3 +$1 +33%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $255 on April 6? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Make a Deal" during Monday news conference? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 06 $5 +$2 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Apr 06 $2 +$3 +151%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Apr 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$1 +125%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 06 $1 +$6 +570%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 05 $6 +$5 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Apr 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Apr 05 $2 +$8 +395%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Apr 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Apr 05 $17 $0 +2%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $240 end of March? Apr 01 $10 $0 +3%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $230 end of March? Apr 01 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Apple (AAPL) close above $250 end of March? Apr 01 $5 +$6 +108%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 43% +$7
other 25% +$1
tech 14% +$5
politics 9% −$4
sports 8% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2m
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY No 57¢ $6 49m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 60¢ $7 51m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 93¢ $17 3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 8h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 42¢ $4 15h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $4 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 24h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 79¢ $8 55d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 82¢ $8 61d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $6 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 90¢ $6 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $9 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $6 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $6 64d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $2 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $1 65d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+2.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +284.9% +248.3% 100% 100% +47.5%
≤30d 3 +284.9% +248.3% 100% 100% +47.5%
≤90d 55 +12.9% +2.2% 56% 47% -7.5%
all 55 +12.9% +2.2% 56% 47% -7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.2% 47% -7.5%
10% -7.6% 42% -16.3%
15% -16.5% 27% -24.4%
20% -24.7% 24% -31.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.45 · official $23.45 (match) · 139 history records