Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:25:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d4e…4653 crypto 568 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$200 (-6%) realized −$201 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate67%381W / 186L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$43now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$271
7 days−$271
14 days−$271
30 days−$271
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$93
other 30% −$220
sports 10% −$82
world 3% −$45
weather 1% +$2
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -13.0% -21.2% 67% 50% -33.7%
≤30d 6 -13.0% -21.2% 67% 50% -33.7%
≤90d 53 -0.7% -10.1% 66% 53% -27.0%
all 567 -5.4% -14.4% 67% 47% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.4% 47% -22.3%
10% -22.6% 31% -29.7%
15% -30.1% 19% -36.5%
20% -37.0% 10% -42.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.49 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$43
Realized−$201
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses381 / 186
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)567 / 568
History coverage114d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 567 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 69¢ $42 $43 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 118 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $303 −$261 -86%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $101 −$98 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $191 +$16 +8%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $345 +$44 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $44 +$12 +28%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $28 +$16 +56%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $7 +$2 +29%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $6 +$1 +10%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $5 +$1 +29%
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? May 17 $1 −$1 -80%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $1 $0 -10%
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $4 +$2 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 17 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 17 $25 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 17 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 17 $3 +$4 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET May 17 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 17 $3 +$1 +33%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Austin FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $6 +$3 +52%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $11 +$12 +108%
Will América FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Famalicão win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $6 +$1 +14%
Will SC Braga vs. CF Estrela da Amadora end in a draw? May 16 $6 +$3 +57%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$3 +64%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés end in a draw? May 16 $1 +$4 +364%
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 +$1 +24%
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC end in a draw? May 16 $15 +$4 +29%
Will Celtic FC vs. Heart of Midlothian FC end in a draw? May 16 $6 −$4 -72%
Will Shandong Taishan FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Wuhan San Zhen FC win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $5 −$4 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 16 $3 +$2 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 16 $51 +$8 +17%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $38 +$19 +50%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 15 $3 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 15 $3 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET May 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 15 $1 $0 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $42 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 12¢ $42 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $193 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $110 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 92¢ $191 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $389 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $288 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $56 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 78¢ $57 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $44 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $44 31h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $28 37h
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 67¢ $9 34d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 34d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $7 34d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 34d
Will AC Milan win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 34d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 34d
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $0 34d
Will Juventus FC vs. ACF Fiorentina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 34d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 30¢ $1 34d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 34d
Will AS Roma win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 34d
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-05-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 34d
Will Gainare Tottori win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $26 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $3 35d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.52 · official $42.53 (match) · 1631 history records