Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:37:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

8D 0x8d4d…8b35 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL −$53 (-0%) realized −$20 · open −$33

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip

Net edge-29%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 4L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,133per market

Trades / day28.0pace

Fees−$144est.

Kalshi-fit73%portable

Net worth$8,365now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-13.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	4	-4.0%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-12.6%
≤30d	4	-4.0%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-12.6%
≤90d	4	-4.0%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-12.6%
all	4	-4.0%	-13.1%	0%	0%	-12.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover28.0 tr/day

realistic slip~15%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-13.1%	0%	-12.6%
10%	-21.4%	0%	-21.0%
15% ← realistic here	-29.0%	0%	-28.6%
20%	-36.0%	0%	-35.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -3% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -4% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

— vs −$34 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$8,365

Realized−$20

Unrealized−$33

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 4

Est. fees paid−$144

Open positions7

Markets (closed)4 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,133

Trades / day28.0

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 7 History 4 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	No	92¢	92¢	$2,564	$2,558	−$6 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	No	97¢	97¢	$1,699	$1,698	−$1 (-0%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	Yes	25¢	24¢	$934	$915	−$19 (-2%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	No	96¢	96¢	$901	$900	−$1 (-0%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	No	96¢	96¢	$798	$798	−$1 (-0%)
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	Yes	8¢	8¢	$669	$675	+$6 (+1%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	Yes	9¢	8¢	$456	$431	−$25 (-6%)
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$303	$307	+$3 (+1%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	3¢	3¢	$56	$55	−$1 (-2%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Yes	24¢	28¢	$25	$29	+$4 (+15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?	Jun 18	$2,710	−$85	-3%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw?	Jun 18	$297	−$10	-4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw?	Jun 18	$243	−$14	-6%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw?	Jun 18	$737	−$26	-4%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw?	BUY Yes	25¢	$955	1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw?	BUY Yes	9¢	$468	1h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$179	1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20?	BUY No	96¢	$902	1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$182	1h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY Yes	4¢	$130	2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$328	2h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$566	2h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19?	BUY No	96¢	$799	5h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	BUY Yes	24¢	$26	5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	97¢	$291	5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY No	92¢	$2,005	5h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw?	BUY Yes	8¢	$181	5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY No	97¢	$1,409	5h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	3¢	$48	5h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?	SELL No	59¢	$1	6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw?	SELL No	79¢	$286	6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw?	SELL No	64¢	$230	6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw?	SELL No	65¢	$707	6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw?	SELL No	65¢	$3	6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?	SELL No	61¢	$2,623	6h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Second half draw?	BUY No	66¢	$243	6h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Second half draw?	BUY No	66¢	$737	6h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Second half draw?	BUY No	81¢	$297	6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?	BUY No	62¢	$1,310	6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?	BUY No	61¢	$865	6h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Second half draw?	BUY No	60¢	$534	6h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,364.72 · official $8,362.65 (match) · 28 history records