Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8d47…25c5 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$57 (+4%) realized +$46 · open +$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate100%9W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day37.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$628now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$114
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +33.1% +20.5% 100% 44% +1.3%
≤30d 9 +33.1% +20.5% 100% 44% +1.3%
≤90d 9 +33.1% +20.5% 100% 44% +1.3%
all 9 +33.1% +20.5% 100% 44% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +20.5% 44% +1.3%
10% ← realistic here +8.9% 33% -8.3%
15% -1.6% 33% -17.2%
20% -11.2% 33% -25.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 68% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$628
Realized+$46
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses9 / 0
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions9
Markets (closed)9 / 18
History coverage1d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day37.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 61¢ 67¢ $177 $194 +$17 (+10%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 59¢ 60¢ $133 $136 +$4 (+3%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 91¢ 100¢ $104 $115 +$11 (+10%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 95¢ 75¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Under 85¢ 83¢ $34 $33 −$1 (-2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Under 56¢ 55¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-2%)
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 45¢ 46¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Under 42¢ 48¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Under 50¢ 50¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $10 +$10 +97%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $21 +$1 +3%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $7 $0 +3%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $55 +$1 +1%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $31 +$28 +91%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $303 +$11 +4%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $10 +$8 +83%
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $391 +$42 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $10 30m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 65¢ $51 40m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $101 41m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 58¢ $7 42m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 33¢ $3 49m
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 89¢ $4 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 91¢ $100 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 75¢ $10 1h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 85¢ $34 1h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 95¢ $100 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $3 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $8 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $5 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $30 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 52¢ $10 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $8 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $7 2h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $6 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $33 2h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $100 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $100 3h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 94¢ $70 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 99¢ $55 3h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 97¢ $7 3h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $291 8h
Norway vs. France: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Under 90¢ $100 8h
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 50¢ $10 11h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Under 56¢ $25 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $628.20 · official $628.20 (match) · 46 history records