Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:46:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d3f…8ea3 other 120 markets active 6d ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL −$37 (-0%) realized −$37 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate3%4W / 116L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day10.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$18
14 days−$19
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% −$19
politics 18% −$5
world 17% −$3
sports 11% −$4
finance 7% −$3
economics 6% −$1
crypto 6% −$3
culture 1% $0
tech 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -24.9% -32.1% 0% 0% -34.0%
≤30d 14 +1.0% -8.6% 7% 7% -13.5%
≤90d 79 +0.1% -9.4% 5% 3% -9.8%
all 120 -0.3% -9.8% 3% 2% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.8%
10% -18.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 2% -26.3%
20% -33.5% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 98% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×3.93 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses4 / 116
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage92d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day10.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 11 $23 −$2 -8%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the Jun 11 $18 −$1 -4%
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? Jun 11 $24 −$15 -63%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $18 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $11 −$1 -5%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 03 $40 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 02 $51 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $14 $0 -4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $94 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 01 $41 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 12 $12 −$1 -6%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 10 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 10 $2 $0 -8%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $298 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? May 07 $30 $0 -1%
Hornets vs. Nets May 07 $20 $0 -0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the May 07 $50 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 27 $41 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Apr 27 $13 +$6 +46%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $22 −$1 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 24 $1 $0 -3%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 23 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $864 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 14 $653 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $181 $0 -0%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Apr 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 08 $187 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $150 $0 -0%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 06 $140 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 06 $648 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 06 $521 −$2 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 06 $215 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 06 $467 −$1 -0%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th? Apr 06 $40 $0 -0%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 05 $130 $0 -0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $40 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 05 $2,332 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in April? Apr 04 $40 $0 -1%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $50 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 04 $200 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $410 −$1 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 04 $298 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? SELL Yes 63¢ $22 6d
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? BUY Yes 67¢ $23 6d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the SELL No 50¢ $18 6d
Will Iván Cepeda Castro place 1st in Bogotá in the second round of the BUY No 51¢ $18 6d
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? SELL No 20¢ $9 6d
Will PARIVISION make a roster change before July? BUY No 53¢ $24 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $13 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $2 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY No 48¢ $5 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? BUY Yes 55¢ $6 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 49¢ $10 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 54¢ $11 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY Yes $3 13d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $37 13d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 14d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $36 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? SELL Yes $0 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY Yes $2 14d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? BUY No 97¢ $39 14d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes $0 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes $2 15d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $49 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $13 15d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $14 15d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 36¢ $1 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 36¢ $7 16d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL Yes 19¢ $0 16d
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1257 history records