Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:53:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d38…0183 sports 80 markets active 3d ago coverage 36d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$43 (-4%) realized −$44 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%35W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$38
14 days−$67
30 days−$95
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$37
other 1% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -50.8% -55.4% 29% 29% -49.5%
≤30d 21 -31.7% -38.2% 33% 33% -37.9%
≤90d 79 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 44% -13.8%
all 79 -8.6% -17.3% 44% 44% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 44% -13.8%
10% -25.2% 44% -22.1%
15% -32.4% 44% -29.6%
20% -39.1% 43% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses35 / 44
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)79 / 80
History coverage36d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 79 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 50¢ 55¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 15 $4 −$4 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $14 +$11 +83%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $14 +$9 +62%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $13 −$12 -99%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $13 −$13 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 12 $15 −$15 -99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $14 −$14 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $15 +$18 +124%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics May 31 $15 +$22 +146%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies May 29 $15 −$15 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 27 $15 +$15 +105%
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 26 $15 −$14 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner May 25 $15 −$15 -99%
World Championships: USA vs. Germany May 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins May 20 $15 −$14 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 20 $28 −$28 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs May 19 $15 +$16 +109%
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals May 19 $15 +$15 +105%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees May 19 $14 −$14 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season May 18 $14 +$9 +60%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 18 $25 +$27 +109%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 17 $14 −$14 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 17 $24 +$23 +93%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 17 $15 +$16 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 17 $14 +$14 +93%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 - Game 2 Winner May 17 $12 +$9 +79%
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics May 16 $28 −$3 -12%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals May 16 $14 +$16 +109%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 15 $14 −$14 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers May 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Cloud9 New York - Game 4 Winner May 15 $14 $0 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner May 15 $11 +$11 +92%
Golden Knights vs. Ducks May 15 $15 +$12 +79%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 15 $15 +$12 +78%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 15 $16 +$13 +80%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Athletics May 14 $16 +$16 +98%
Will New York Red Bulls win on 2026-05-16? May 14 $14 −$14 -98%
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets May 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Minnesota Twins May 14 $15 +$13 +89%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox May 14 $14 −$14 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $15 −$14 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $17 +$24 +146%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Boston Red Sox May 14 $12 +$14 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Chicago Cubs 64¢ $4 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 62¢ $13 3d
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 59¢ $13 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 54¢ $14 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 61¢ $14 4d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Minnesota Twins 52¢ $15 5d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ $14 5d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 52¢ $15 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 59¢ $15 8d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 66¢ $15 19d
San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies BUY San Francisco Giants 56¢ $15 19d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Philadelphia Phillies 44¢ $15 19d
New York Yankees vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 40¢ $15 19d
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Colorado Rockies 29¢ $15 22d
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics BUY Seattle Mariners 48¢ $15 23d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI - Game 1 Winner BUY G2 Esports 64¢ $15 24d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany BUY Germany 37¢ $1 28d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany BUY Germany 37¢ $1 28d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany BUY Germany 37¢ $1 28d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany BUY Germany 37¢ $1 28d
World Championships: USA vs. Germany BUY Germany 37¢ $12 28d
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Houston Astros 48¢ $15 28d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 33¢ $13 28d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 35¢ $15 28d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees BUY Toronto Blue Jays 57¢ $14 30d
Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Boston Red Sox 48¢ $15 30d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs BUY Milwaukee Brewers 47¢ $15 30d
LoL: FlyQuest vs LYON (BO3) - LCS Regular Season BUY FlyQuest 62¢ $14 31d
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 46¢ $14 31d
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 50¢ $12 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.85 · official $28.85 (match) · 137 history records