Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d38…d319 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 169d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%22W / 143L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 28% −$3
other 24% −$5
politics 22% −$5
crypto 8% −$1
culture 8% $0
economics 5% −$1
world 2% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 165 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

169d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses22 / 143
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)165 / 165
History coverage169d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 165 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $82 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $41 $0 -0%
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $45 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $364 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $48 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $127 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $37 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 24 $39 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 24 $38 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 23 $81 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 23 $78 $0 +1%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 23 $42 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 21 $98 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Mar 21 $40 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 20 $82 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $85 $0 -0%
Will Akshay Bhatia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 18 $50 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $41 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Mar 16 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 16 $39 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 16 $133 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 15 $46 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 15 $46 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $102 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 13 $91 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 13 $104 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 12 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 11 $40 $0 -1%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Mar 11 $96 $0 -0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $152 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Mar 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 09 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Mar 09 $49 $0 -1%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? Mar 07 $91 −$1 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL No 95¢ $39 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 95¢ $39 9h
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $36 8d
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $36 8d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $41 19d
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $41 19d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 94¢ $38 27d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 94¢ $38 27d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $41 40d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $41 40d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 97¢ $44 94d
Will Tommy Fleetwood win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 97¢ $45 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $41 94d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $41 94d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $48 94d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $48 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $46 95d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $46 95d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $37 95d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $37 95d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 95d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $39 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? SELL No 97¢ $38 95d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? BUY No 97¢ $38 95d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 95d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $6 96d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $37 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL Yes 95¢ $40 96d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 94¢ $40 96d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $47 96d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 609 history records