Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:34:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d37…e428 other 247 markets active 1h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%13W / 234L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$16
14 days−$26
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$46
sports 25% −$23
politics 7% −$7
economics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$5
crypto 5% −$1
world 3% +$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 72 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 247 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.48 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses13 / 234
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)247 / 247
History coverage135d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 247 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $358 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $223 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $133 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $501 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $123 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $281 −$1 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 16 $222 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 15 $609 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $598 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 15 $350 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $504 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $506 −$2 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $129 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $453 −$1 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 13 $170 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $434 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $412 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $147 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $64 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $856 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $343 −$1 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $130 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $162 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $839 −$1 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $451 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $497 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $150 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $136 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $532 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $451 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $232 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $475 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $248 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 06 $261 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $347 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 05 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,068 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $431 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $278 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $61 1h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 3h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $61 4h
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $61 5h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $61 17h
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $61 19h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $61 23h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $61 24h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $61 29h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $61 31h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $61 32h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 34h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 38h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $61 41h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $61 45h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $62 47h
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $62 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $62 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $62 2d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $62 2d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $62 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $62 3d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $62 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1377 history records