Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d31…684d other 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 614d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate16%9W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$14
other 15% +$14
economics 6% $0
sports 3% −$11
world 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 +0.0% -9.5% 18% 9% -9.3%
all 57 -0.2% -9.7% 16% 7% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 7% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 7% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 7% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 7% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×4.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

614d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses9 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage614d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $140 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $43 $43 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $8 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $8 $0 -0%
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $14 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 02 $155 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $14 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $13 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $70 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 11 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 08 $137 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $70 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 02 $70 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $73 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 01 $71 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $73 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $74 $0 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 24 $74 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Hong Ihk-pyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 23 $72 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $74 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $75 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $70 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $72 $0 -0%
Will Seo Young-kyo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $77 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 18 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $71 $0 -0%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$5 +76%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $8 +$7 +86%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $7 +$11 +165%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 −$7 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Canadiens vs. Rangers Apr 06 $9 +$6 +72%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $9 $0 +4%
Based FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on March 27? Mar 27 $9 $0 +0%
EdgeX FDV above $4B one day after launch? Feb 27 $34 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Feb 13 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 12 $9 $0 -2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $7 $0 -3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 21 $8 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $13 14h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $13 18h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $8 2d
Will Solana reach $140 in June? BUY No 100¢ $43 3d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 5d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Alex Michelsen be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $11 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 9d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $12 15d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $14 15d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $14 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $14 16d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $14 16d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $13 24d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $13 24d
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in May? BUY No 100¢ $24 25d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $69 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.15 · official $56.15 (match) · 330 history records