Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T04:10:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d2e…770b
weather · 1183 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$516 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$936 · open +$22
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$760
Realized−$936
Unrealized+$22
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses1067 / 50
Open positions53
Markets (closed)1117 / 1183
History coverage34d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day66.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 53 History 1117 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$37
14 days+$144
30 days−$750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $44 $45 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 17°C or below on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 100°F or higher on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 34°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? No 99¢ 99¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? No 96¢ 98¢ $16 $17 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C on June 14? Yes 9¢ 38¢ $4 $15 +$12 (+323%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 37°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 12? Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -87%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $89 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 33°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 36°C or higher on June 13 Jun 13 $21 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 80°F or higher on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 12? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun Jun 13 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 12? Jun 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on Jun Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Jun Jun 13 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C or higher on June 12 Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 23°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$932
other 0% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 64-65°F on June BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 72-73°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 88°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be 94°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 84°F or higher on June 15? BUY No 96¢ $16 1h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $9 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $10 13h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $10 14h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $10 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $17 17h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $3 18h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $20 19h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $49 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 21h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $13 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2 22h
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 358 +0.9% -8.7% 98% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 1026 +0.7% -8.9% 96% 1% -13.1%
≤90d 1117 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 2% -13.5%
all 1117 +1.9% -7.8% 96% 2% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover66.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.8% 2% -13.5%
10% ← realistic here -16.6% 2% -21.8%
15% -24.7% 2% -29.3%
20% -32.1% 1% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $760.02 · official $760.03 (match) · 3500 history records