Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d2b…efb9 world 91 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate29%26W / 63L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$84now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$8
14 days−$11
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$10
other 32% +$7
sports 22% +$1
politics 5% +$4
finance 3% +$4
crypto 1% $0
economics 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 27 +0.4% -9.2% 30% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 28% 3% -9.5%
all 89 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.9% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.9% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$84
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses26 / 63
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage316d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $84 $84 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 18¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $93 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $110 −$1 -1%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $52 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $93 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $133 −$4 -3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $92 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $11 $0 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $231 −$2 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $389 −$2 -0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $136 −$4 -3%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $105 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 05 $187 +$4 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +19%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $380 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $89 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $191 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $218 +$4 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $108 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 25 $102 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $96 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 18 $3 $0 -3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $100 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $183 $0 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 15 $1 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,176 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $242 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 25 $145 +$1 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $559 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $559 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $150 +$3 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $171 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 14 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Mar 03 $8 $0 +3%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Dec 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $57 +$2 +3%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 05 $5 $0 -2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 19 $20 $0 +2%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $18 +$2 +11%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 01 $18 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Oct 01 $15 +$1 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $42 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $93 4h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $93 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $18 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $65 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $83 16h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 31h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $13 31h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $52 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $52 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $10 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $83 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 79¢ $93 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $74 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $74 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $3 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $92 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $92 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $15 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 51¢ $69 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $44 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 54¢ $44 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $97 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $83.77 · official $83.74 (match) · 375 history records