Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:21:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d27…bfc3
sports · 8 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
−$6 -15%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage14d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 7 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 50¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Down 84¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? Jun 01 $10 −$9 -96%
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 01 $2 −$2 -95%
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 May 31 $3 +$3 +118%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 May 31 $3 +$2 +48%
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $13 +$1 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$7
other 46% +$2
crypto 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $3 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 94¢ $6 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 12d
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 12d
Will Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 12d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 2¢ $0 12d
Clube do Remo vs. São Paulo FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 40¢ $2 12d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $6 12d
Brazil vs. Panama: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 45¢ $3 12d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $5 12d
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 67¢ $3 12d
Will Mexico win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 91¢ $13 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +6.2% -3.9% 100% 0% -3.9%
≤30d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 29% -23.4%
≤90d 7 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 29% -23.4%
all 7 -15.7% -23.7% 57% 29% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 29% -23.4%
10% -31.0% 29% -30.7%
15% -37.7% 29% -37.4%
20% -43.8% 14% -43.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.03 · official $3.03 (match) · 14 history records