Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:37:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d25…4f9f other 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 407d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$237 (+24%) realized +$237 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -44% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%6W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 76% +$337
sports 11% −$15
politics 10% −$65
crypto 2% −$15
economics 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-49.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤30d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -14.3%
≤90d 8 -1.7% -11.1% 50% 50% -14.3%
all 21 -44.4% -49.7% 29% 29% +13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -49.7% 29% +13.2%
10% -54.5% 24% +2.4%
15% -58.9% 24% -7.5%
20% -62.9% 19% -16.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 94% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -44% · $-wt +25% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -83% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$22 · ×4.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.7 per $1 lost it wins $1.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

407d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized+$237
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses6 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage407d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $46 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$14 +44%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 $0 -11%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $14 +$19 +140%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 +$7 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? May 08 $520 +$517 +99%
Will Joe Biden say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his May 8 interview? May 08 $12 −$11 -93%
Will Joe Biden say "China" during his May 8 interview? May 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) May 08 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? May 08 $130 −$130 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting? May 07 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? May 07 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-05-06? May 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Inter win on 2025-05-06? May 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Percent" 5+ times during Carney visit on May 6? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Joe Biden say "Trump" 5+ times during his May 8 interview? May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $47 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $32 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $4 8h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $14 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $14 32h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 38h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $22 4d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,037 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 50¢ $149 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 50¢ $35 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 49¢ $40 404d
Will Joe Biden say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his May 8 interview? SELL Yes $1 404d
Will Joe Biden say "China" during his May 8 interview? SELL Yes $0 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 50¢ $41 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 404d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-08? BUY Yes 52¢ $100 405d
Will Jerome Powell say "Russia" during the May meeting? BUY Yes $2 405d
Will Jerome Powell say "Trump" during the May meeting? BUY Yes $4 405d
Will Trump say "Kamala" this week? SELL Yes 69¢ $35 405d
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) BUY Arsenal 15¢ $20 405d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-07? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 405d
Champions League: Arsenal vs. PSG (To Advance) BUY Arsenal 23¢ $20 406d
Will Joe Biden say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his May 8 interview? BUY Yes $1 406d
Will Joe Biden say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during his May 8 interview? BUY Yes $1 406d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.34 · official $45.34 (match) · 56 history records