Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T18:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d22…ae40 crypto 67 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$39 (-3%) realized −$48 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%21W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$67
7 days+$15
14 days−$57
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$9
crypto 35% −$55
weather 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +46.4% +32.4% 44% 44% -4.7%
≤30d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 33% -19.8%
≤90d 64 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 33% -19.8%
all 64 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 33% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 33% -19.8%
10% -18.3% 31% -27.5%
15% -26.2% 31% -34.5%
20% -33.5% 30% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$8 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$946
Realized−$48
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses21 / 43
Open positions3
Markets (closed)64 / 67
History coverage13d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 64 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $901 $899 −$2 (-0%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? No 39¢ 66¢ $16 $27 +$11 (+68%)
Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office of the Special Prosecutor and National Crime Agency? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$8 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 24 $11 +$29 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $7 +$19 +258%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$4 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$24 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$3 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$4 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $3 +$6 +189%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $2 +$3 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$10 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$5 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$9 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$60 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$22 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 13? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Slovakia pass the 2026 referendum question restoring the Office o BUY Yes 9¢ $21 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $513 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 22¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $9 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $4 43h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $52 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $3 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $4 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 44h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $287 44h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? BUY No 39¢ $16 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $7 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $945.79 · official $945.79 (match) · 162 history records