Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T00:50:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d20…d481 world 92 markets active 0h ago coverage 487d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate40%36W / 54L
Drawdown47%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$6
other 18% $0
sports 17% −$3
politics 15% +$4
economics 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.5% -10.9% 33% 8% -9.6%
≤30d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 10% -9.2%
≤90d 72 -0.4% -9.9% 38% 4% -9.2%
all 90 -0.3% -9.8% 40% 6% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

487d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses36 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)90 / 92
History coverage487d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown47%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $44 −$1 -3%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $61 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $44 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -19%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 15 $90 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $58 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $96 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 -10%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +12%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $155 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $67 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $124 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $13 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 08 $64 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $47 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $186 −$5 -3%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $60 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 31 $42 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 30 $48 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 29 $43 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $38 +$5 +14%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $51 +$6 +12%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $33 $0 -1%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $35 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $2 $0 -23%
Will Alberta join the US? May 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 18 $3 $0 -2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 16 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $18 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $34 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 15 $33 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $147 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $33 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $33 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $71 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $13 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 21 $33 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 89¢ $43 24m
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 92¢ $44 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $27 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $27 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $13 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 17h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $17 21h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $39 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $5 29h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $44 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $44 32h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $28 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $14 41h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $42 44h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 2d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $50 4d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $33 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 60¢ $10 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $42 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $12 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $2 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.57 · official $0.00 (match) · 369 history records