Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:13:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d20…c3ab crypto 908 markets active 0h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$255 (-5%) realized −$255 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%375W / 532L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day25.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$35
7 days+$35
14 days+$35
30 days−$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$229
sports 6% −$139
other 4% −$5
weather 1% −$10
world 0% +$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +43.1% +29.4% 60% 60% +31.7%
≤30d 783 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 42% -15.0%
≤90d 907 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 41% -15.8%
all 907 -6.1% -15.0% 41% 41% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 41% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 39% -23.9%
15% -30.6% 37% -31.2%
20% -37.4% 34% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.23 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$255
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses375 / 532
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)907 / 908
History coverage44d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day25.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 907 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Up 51¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 319 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$17 +331%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +146%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 31 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET May 29 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 29 $11 −$10 -94%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$11 +205%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 29 $5 +$7 +140%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 29 $5 +$4 +86%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 29 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 29 $5 +$9 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +91%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +48%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +93%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -97%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -96%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 29 $5 +$5 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 0m
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 22m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 43m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 15, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 17d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 17d
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 17d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $5 17d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.95 · official $4.95 (match) · 1687 history records