Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8d1d…59d6 other 3 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$288 (+30%) realized +$285 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%2W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$319per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$353now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 69% +$147
sports 31% +$138
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+32.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +46.6% +32.7% 100% 100% +32.7%
≤30d 2 +46.6% +32.7% 100% 100% +32.7%
≤90d 2 +46.6% +32.7% 100% 100% +32.7%
all 2 +46.6% +32.7% 100% 100% +32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.7% 100% +32.7%
10% +20.0% 100% +20.0%
15% +8.4% 100% +8.4%
20% -2.2% 0% -2.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$141 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$353
Realized+$285
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses2 / 0
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2 / 3
History coverage2d
Avg bet$319
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 2 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $350 $353 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $303 +$144 +48%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $301 +$138 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $353 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $447 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $303 12h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $301 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $352.57 · official $352.57 (match) · 5 history records