Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:44:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d1d…587b sports 537 markets active 1h ago coverage 745d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$173 (+4%) realized +$203 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%272W / 245L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$70
14 days+$46
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% +$286
other 10% −$1
crypto 8% −$47
politics 7% −$56
world 1% −$4
economics 0% −$11
tech 0% −$5
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +37.6% +24.5% 62% 55% +24.5%
≤30d 142 +9.6% -0.8% 51% 46% -10.8%
≤90d 213 +5.7% -4.4% 50% 47% +21.3%
all 517 +4.9% -5.1% 53% 49% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.1% 49% -5.2%
10% -14.2% 46% -14.3%
15% -22.5% 43% -22.6%
20% -30.1% 39% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$5 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

745d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses272 / 245
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions20
Markets (closed)517 / 537
History coverage745d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 517 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Will Charlotte Hornets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $5 $10 +$5 (+101%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 53¢ 50¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Milwaukee Bucks win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+9%)
Will Detroit Pistons win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Los Angeles Lakers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-42%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+12%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Austria 45¢ 44¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-68%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-71%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 45¢ 14¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-68%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-99%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 172 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $3 $0 +6%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $2 +$2 +87%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1116%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $3 +$5 +152%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +79%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$4 -72%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $2 −$1 -61%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +9%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 $0 +32%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +75%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$1 -6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +259%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -37%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 +$3 +96%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$4 +44%
Will Top Esports win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -61%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 $0 +9%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $2 +$2 +83%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +69%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $2 +$2 +90%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +105%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +276%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 4? Jun 14 $1 $0 -2%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $5 +$5 +105%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 47¢ $3 40m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $2 48m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 50m
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 47¢ $1 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $1 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $1 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $1 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 47¢ $1 3h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 13h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $1 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $2 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 24h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $1 24h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $3 24h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 39¢ $3 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 19¢ $1 24h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $117.65 · official $126.81 · 1181 history records