Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d1c…dc11 crypto 38 markets active 0h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+19%) realized +$182 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day8.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$61
14 days+$62
30 days+$62
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$126
sports 12% +$82
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +15.7% +4.7% 46% 46% +11.8%
≤30d 28 +14.3% +3.4% 46% 46% +11.5%
≤90d 28 +14.3% +3.4% 46% 46% +11.5%
all 28 +14.3% +3.4% 46% 46% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.4% 46% +11.5%
10% -6.5% 43% +0.9%
15% -15.5% 36% -8.9%
20% -23.8% 32% -17.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 60% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +59% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$6 · ×1.88 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.63 per $1 lost it wins $1.63
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized+$182
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions10
Markets (closed)28 / 38
History coverage8d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day8.3
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Up 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Down 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Down 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Down 19¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $26 +$17 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$12 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$39 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $17 −$14 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$2 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$15 +683%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $20 +$80 +388%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 0¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $32 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.82 · official $5.82 (match) · 77 history records