Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:55:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d19…2410 other 53 markets active 1h ago coverage 29d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,135 (+2%) realized +$1,135 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate26%14W / 39L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$888per market
Trades / day14.1pace
Fees−$211est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$574
7 days−$994
14 days−$34
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% +$323
sports 15% −$110
world 2% −$50
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -12.9% -21.2% 19% 19% -13.6%
≤30d 53 -4.6% -13.7% 26% 21% -9.1%
≤90d 53 -4.6% -13.7% 26% 21% -9.1%
all 53 -4.6% -13.7% 26% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.7% 21% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.0% 11% -17.8%
15% -29.5% 8% -25.7%
20% -36.4% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$738) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$216 vs −$73 · ×2.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

29d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,135
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses14 / 39
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$211
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 53
History coverage29d
Avg bet$888
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $5,226 −$366 -7%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $500 −$14 -3%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $1,801 −$108 -6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $514 −$86 -17%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,529 −$177 -7%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,727 +$405 +23%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $1,220 +$414 +34%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,421 −$131 -9%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $204 +$36 +18%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $738 −$104 -14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $200 −$28 -14%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $204 −$1 -0%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $511 −$93 -18%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2,501 −$419 -17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $7,566 −$272 -4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,015 −$48 -5%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$2 -24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,499 +$225 +15%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7,035 +$928 +13%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2,518 +$366 +14%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $928 −$50 -5%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $710 −$191 -27%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $206 −$28 -14%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $704 −$103 -15%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $205 −$20 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $161 −$106 -66%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $205 −$10 -5%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2026-05-27? Jun 09 $1 +$1 +54%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $222 −$17 -8%
Will Atlético Nacional win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1,240 −$78 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $411 −$48 -12%
Will Slovenia win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $409 +$407 +100%
Will AA Ponte Preta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $205 −$22 -11%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $500 −$40 -8%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $272 +$117 +43%
Will Austria vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 01 $306 −$9 -3%
Will SE Palmeiras win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $36 +$105 +294%
Will Racing Club win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 27 $300 −$25 -8%
Will CD Coquimbo Unido win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $301 −$119 -40%
Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $300 −$6 -2%
Will Santos FC win on 2026-05-26? May 27 $51 +$11 +22%
Will LDU de Quito win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $56 −$14 -26%
Will Mirassol FC win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $51 −$22 -43%
Will CA Lanús win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $50 −$7 -14%
Will Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Nice win on 2026-05-26? May 26 $66 −$22 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 62¢ $311 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 62¢ $189 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 55¢ $502 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 54¢ $500 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 50¢ $1,251 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $1,520 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 68¢ $1,463 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,501 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 35¢ $790 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 30¢ $695 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 37¢ $504 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 36¢ $510 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 62¢ $486 25h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 63¢ $500 25h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $1 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $1,678 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $13 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 64¢ $1 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1,218 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $11 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $418 27h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 68¢ $153 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $161 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $0 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $3 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $1 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $1 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $2 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $2 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 6¢ $4 27h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 430 history records