Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T10:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d18…edc3 politics 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 280d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 40% −$3
politics 24% +$1
other 23% $0
finance 5% $0
economics 4% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 13 -1.9% -11.3% 15% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 15 -1.9% -11.3% 13% 0% -10.3%
all 45 -0.7% -10.2% 36% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

280d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage280d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? No 96¢ 97¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $36 $0 -1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $8 −$2 -20%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 31 $12 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $35 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $35 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $77 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $44 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $17 −$1 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $39 −$2 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Oct 10 $15 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $47 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 10 $29 $0 +1%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 06 $27 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 05 $27 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 02 $21 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $1 $0 -10%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Sep 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 28 $15 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 28 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 24 $16 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Sep 24 $32 −$1 -2%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 22 $16 +$1 +4%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $25 23h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $7 23h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $25 25h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $6 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $14 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $18 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 39h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $35 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $15 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $17 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $30 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $26 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $10 22d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 99¢ $36 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL Yes 19¢ $13 22d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 22d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $35 23d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 23d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 24d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? BUY Yes 13¢ $12 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $35 25d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $35 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 50¢ $5 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $30 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $35 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.58 · official $35.58 (match) · 164 history records