Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:10:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d15…38a3
other · 37 markets active 0h ago
2.0score
+$17 +4%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$13 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$106
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions22
Markets (closed)15 / 37
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day23.7
Drawdown65%
Kalshi-fit59%
Chart Positions 22 History 15 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $42 $44 +$2 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 58¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 38¢ 40¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? No 59¢ 57¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 88¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+13%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 42¢ 44¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Yes 28¢ 18¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-34%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 51¢ 55¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 57¢ 48¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? No 42¢ 42¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 +$0 (+23%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 65¢ 60¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 50¢ 46¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-9%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 52¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-24%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 83¢ 76¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 +$7 +227%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 $0 +24%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +44%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$2 -49%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $7 −$4 -60%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $15 +$3 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 09 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $30 −$3 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $136 +$5 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 60% +$14
other 23% +$3
world 13% −$1
sports 3% −$3
tech 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 26m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 31m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 32m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 30¢ $2 37m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 38m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 42¢ $2 41m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 71¢ $2 41m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 40¢ $5 42m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 69¢ $3 42m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 56m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 56m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 57m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Spirit 47¢ $3 57m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Spirit 35¢ $2 59m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $2 2h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 4h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 18¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL MOUZ 17¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 13¢ $2 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 65¢ $2 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $3 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 64¢ $3 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 72¢ $3 6h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 50¢ $2 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 56¢ $3 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 40% -5.1%
≤30d 15 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 40% -5.1%
≤90d 15 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 40% -5.1%
all 15 -4.8% -13.9% 60% 40% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.9% 40% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -22.1% 33% -14.2%
15% -29.6% 13% -22.5%
20% -36.5% 7% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.12 · official $106.58 (match) · 107 history records