Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:22:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d13…197a
sports · 101 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$42 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$45 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$39
Realized−$45
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses50 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)93 / 101
History coverage128d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 8 History 93 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$6
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 50¢ 50¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Josh Hokit 78¢ 78¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
O/U 1.5 Rounds Over 56¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Kyle Daukaus 28¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Over 62¢ 61¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Card) Sean OMalley 79¢ 79¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
O/U 2.5 Rounds Under 78¢ 69¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main Card) Tai Tuivasa 68¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) Brighton & Hove Albion FC 83¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) Joaquin Buckley 39¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) Jared Gordon 71¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Up 34¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 Under 79¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 04 $6 −$6 -96%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $5 +$15 +285%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $8 +$4 +50%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $8 +$2 +27%
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $5 +$9 +165%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 09 $8 +$5 +57%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $8 −$8 -100%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 09 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) May 09 $8 −$8 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 May 05 $8 +$3 +38%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Wild vs. Avalanche May 04 $8 +$2 +19%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $7 +$11 +146%
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 May 03 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $5 +$3 +48%
Arsenal FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 3.5 May 02 $9 +$3 +38%
Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 May 02 $4 +$1 +21%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $8 +$4 +59%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $8 +$8 +97%
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) May 02 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Themba Gorimbo vs. Jonathan Micallef (Welterweight, P May 02 $8 +$4 +46%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-05-01? May 02 $9 −$8 -99%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $8 −$8 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Tai Tuivasa vs. Louie Sutherland (Heavyweight, Main C May 02 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? May 02 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $10 +$10 +93%
UFC Fight Night: Mandel Nallo vs. Jai Herbert (Lightweight, Main Card) Apr 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 25 $8 +$2 +26%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $5 +$4 +70%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Apr 25 $8 −$8 -100%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 22 $9 +$12 +125%
UFC Fight Night: Karine Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius (Women's Flywei Apr 21 $7 +$3 +37%
UFC Fight Night: Kyler Phillips vs. Charles Jourdain (Bantamweight, Ma Apr 21 $7 +$6 +79%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5) Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucks vs. Thunder Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Nuggets vs. Grizzlies Apr 18 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Apr 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 18 $1 $0 +25%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $11 +$9 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Tampa Bay Rays Apr 07 $11 +$9 +83%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-04? Apr 06 $10 +$4 +43%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Riders Mar 29 $5 −$2 -41%
Trail Blazers vs. Jazz Feb 26 $1 +$1 +54%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Oh My God (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Feb 26 $1 +$1 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 69% −$27
other 26% −$2
crypto 5% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 62¢ $5 1h
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Under 78¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Josh Hokit 78¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Sean OMalley 79¢ $5 1h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 50¢ $5 1h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 56¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $1 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 10d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 BUY Over 66¢ $8 27d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $8 36d
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Joaquin Buckley 39¢ $5 36d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY King Green 78¢ $8 36d
UFC 328: Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon (Lightweight, Prelims) BUY Jared Gordon 71¢ $8 36d
UFC 328: Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio (Middleweight, Early Prelims) BUY Roman Kopylov 37¢ $5 36d
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) BUY Jose Ochoa 63¢ $8 36d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 100¢ $11 39d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 40d
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $8 40d
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 41d
Wild vs. Avalanche SELL Avalanche 78¢ $10 41d
Wild vs. Avalanche BUY Avalanche 65¢ $8 41d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 40¢ $7 42d
Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $8 42d
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) SELL Steve Erceg 100¢ $12 43d
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, SELL Carlos Prates 100¢ $16 43d
Spread: Newcastle United FC (-1.5) BUY Brighton & Hove Albion FC 83¢ $5 43d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 43d
Brentford FC vs. West Ham United FC: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $4 43d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +78.2% +61.2% 67% 67% +50.7%
≤90d 48 -8.3% -17.0% 52% 52% -15.1%
all 93 -13.1% -21.3% 54% 53% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.3% 53% -18.5%
10% -28.9% 43% -26.3%
15% -35.7% 38% -33.4%
20% -42.0% 24% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.18 · official $39.18 (match) · 212 history records