Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d12…7d66
crypto · 47 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$221 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$219 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$219
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses14 / 32
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)46 / 47
History coverage22d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day14.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 46 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$118
7 days−$118
14 days−$118
30 days−$219
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Up 71¢ 66¢ $31 $29 −$2 (-8%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No 0¢ 0¢ $40 $0 −$40 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Down 75¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 23? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 13 $25 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 13 $28 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 13 $17 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 13 $22 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 13 $23 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$1 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $10 −$6 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 13 $11 −$4 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $19 −$6 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $45 −$29 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $65 −$12 -19%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on Jun 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$2 +33%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $42 −$40 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $15 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: OLDBOYS- vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europ Jun 12 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$7 -63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 23? May 23 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET May 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET May 23 $3 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 23 $120 −$58 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 23 $27 −$25 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET May 23 $19 −$4 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 23 $4 −$2 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 23 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 23 $50 +$1 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $25 −$9 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET May 23 $52 −$15 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET May 23 $11 −$8 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 23 $26 −$4 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 23 $41 +$11 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 23 $5 +$6 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 23 $11 +$19 +176%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 89% −$155
tech 7% −$57
world 3% −$9
sports 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $21 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $10 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $11 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 89¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $16 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 33¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET SELL Down 52¢ $1 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 59m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-35.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -30.6% -37.2% 31% 10% -34.6%
≤30d 46 -28.6% -35.4% 30% 15% -33.0%
≤90d 46 -28.6% -35.4% 30% 15% -33.0%
all 46 -28.6% -35.4% 30% 15% -33.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.4% 15% -33.0%
10% -41.6% 9% -39.4%
15% -47.2% 4% -45.3%
20% -52.4% 4% -50.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.57 · official $25.08 · 343 history records