Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8D 0x8d11…a8e1 sports 1215 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$245 (-4%) realized −$242 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%547W / 668L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day36.8pace
Fees−$143est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$165
14 days−$229
30 days−$239
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$360
other 8% −$12
crypto 1% +$5
world 0% −$5
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 121 -20.0% -27.7% 42% 40% -21.7%
≤30d 415 -12.0% -20.3% 43% 40% -17.2%
≤90d 1215 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 43% -14.5%
all 1215 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 43% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover36.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 43% -14.5%
10% ← realistic here -29.7% 39% -22.7%
15% -36.5% 34% -30.2%
20% -42.7% 27% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses547 / 668
Est. fees paid−$143
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1215 / 1215
History coverage74d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day36.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1215 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $31 $28 −$3 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 144 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 16 $2 +$3 +139%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$5 -24%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $7 +$9 +134%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 +$13 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 −$19 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $19 −$10 -55%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $4 −$4 -98%
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Jun 15 $3 +$1 +37%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$4 +74%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$13 +567%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $55 +$10 +18%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -11%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $6 +$6 +101%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$10 +109%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 $0 +7%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $9 +$6 +71%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $25 +$5 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $6 +$6 +104%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $2 +$3 +143%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $3 +$3 +92%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $57 +$19 +33%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $38 −$37 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 197.5 Jun 14 $9 +$1 +10%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $37 +$6 +16%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $21 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $60 −$10 -16%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $11 +$4 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell SELL Ann Li 35¢ $5 1h
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell BUY Ann Li 14¢ $2 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 8h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $3 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $0 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 10h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 41¢ $1 10h
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 27¢ $5 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 47¢ $10 12h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $9 14h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 81¢ $4 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 99¢ $10 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 97¢ $10 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 96¢ $14 15h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Egypt 96¢ $5 15h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $2 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 84¢ $4 16h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 77¢ $8 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $4 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 19¢ $1 17h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Egypt 63¢ $25 17h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 34¢ $7 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 33¢ $4 18h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 37¢ $5 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 46¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.10 · official $28.10 (match) · 3500 history records