Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:26:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d10…940a
sports · 1127 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$860 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$828 · open −$32
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$406
Realized−$828
Unrealized−$32
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses521 / 568
Est. fees paid−$221
Open positions34
Markets (closed)1089 / 1127
History coverage12d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day241.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 34 History 1089 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3,632
7 days−$1,671
14 days−$828
30 days−$828
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Monte 44¢ 100¢ $20 $47 +$27 (+130%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 66¢ $36 $36 +$0 (+1%)
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Alexander Bublik 65¢ 64¢ $36 $35 −$1 (-2%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 66¢ $26 $35 +$9 (+35%)
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel Zsombor Piros 61¢ 66¢ $31 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Over 57¢ 56¢ $25 $24 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees Tampa Bay Rays 44¢ 38¢ $26 $23 −$4 (-13%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 54¢ $21 $21 +$1 (+3%)
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Karmine Corp Blue 83¢ 78¢ $22 $21 −$1 (-6%)
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 61¢ 48¢ $22 $18 −$5 (-22%)
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 G2 54¢ 80¢ $11 $17 +$5 (+47%)
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group A Misa Esports 79¢ 78¢ $16 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Team Falcons 67¢ 66¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Mike Vrabel out as Patriots Head Coach by Dec 31, 2026? No 58¢ 88¢ $6 $10 +$3 (+51%)
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 47¢ 46¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-3%)
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+33%)
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 Under 54¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BetBoom Team 63¢ 62¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ 53¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Eintracht Spandau 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner Karmine Corp Blue 62¢ 68¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Eintracht Spandau 68¢ 64¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Atlanta Braves 47¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) St. Louis Cardinals 63¢ 60¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Over 53¢ 39¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago White Sox vs. Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Leolia Jeanjean Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
FC Volendam vs. Telstar 1963: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Game Handicap: AL (-1.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-1.5) vs Basilashvili (+1.5) Jun 12 $101 −$101 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
UD Almería vs. UD Las Palmas: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
PSV vs. FC Twente '65: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 212.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Zhizhen Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5) Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Viktorija Golubic vs Alycia Parks Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Atlanta Braves vs. Mi Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
FC Augsburg vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Adolfo Vallejo vs Moise Kouame Jun 12 $41 −$41 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Spread: Celtics (-6.5) Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Casper Ruud vs. Tommy Paul: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai Jun 12 $48 −$48 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Game Handicap: BRO (-1.5) vs DN SOOPers (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Leeds United FC vs. Brighton & Hove Albion FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Baptiste vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Canadiens vs. Lightning Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Huzhou: Yufei Ren vs Yidi Yang Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-5.5) Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Map Handicap: 9z (-1.5) vs KRÜ Blaze (+1.5) Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 96% +$3,623
other 4% −$116
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets BUY Atlanta Braves 47¢ $3 3m
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY BetBoom Team 63¢ $5 18m
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY Team Falcons 67¢ $13 24m
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 68¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $5 1h
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group BUY Misa Esports 79¢ $16 2h
Gea vs. Lajal: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Over 34¢ $5 2h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 42¢ $5 2h
Bellucci vs. Fritz: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 54¢ $5 2h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $5 3h
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Oliver Tarvet BUY Tristan Schoolkate 55¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 44¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 44¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 44¢ $1 3h
Bratislava: Petr Brunclik vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Vitaliy Sachko 51¢ $103 3h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY MOUZ 38¢ $5 5h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue - Game 2 Winner BUY Karmine Corp Blue 62¢ $4 5h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 81¢ $4 5h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $4 5h
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Eintracht Spandau 68¢ $5 5h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 64¢ $5 5h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 45¢ $8 8h
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 47¢ $7 8h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs Monte (+3.5) BUY Monte 64¢ $6 8h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Monte 43¢ $7 9h
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Karmine Corp Blue 83¢ $18 13h
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5) BUY Chicago White Sox 61¢ $23 14h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 14h
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Hurricanes 60¢ $25 15h
Bratislava: Zsombor Piros vs Taro Daniel BUY Zsombor Piros 61¢ $32 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 604 -26.7% -33.7% 37% 37% -24.2%
≤30d 1089 -2.5% -11.7% 48% 46% -14.1%
≤90d 1089 -2.5% -11.7% 48% 46% -14.1%
all 1089 -2.5% -11.7% 48% 46% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover241.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 46% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.2% 42% -22.3%
15% -27.9% 38% -29.8%
20% -35.0% 34% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.11 · official $401.84 · 3500 history records