Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:55:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d10…29e8
weather · 163 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$124 -12%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$92 · open −$36
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$31
Realized−$92
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses59 / 88
Open positions16
Markets (closed)147 / 163
History coverage4d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day89.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 16 History 147 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$16
7 days−$92
14 days−$92
30 days−$92
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 42¢ 50¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+20%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? Yes 56¢ 38¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-33%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Yes 33¢ 30¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? Yes 19¢ 22¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? Yes 35¢ 21¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 12? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-98%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 62-63°F on June 9? No 79¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 10? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 10? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 10? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on June 11? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$5 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$4 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$3 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$12 +376%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 +$16 +190%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 11 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju Jun 11 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 11? Jun 11 $6 +$6 +104%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 11 $22 −$12 -54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 −$10 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$2 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$8 +146%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -92%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 +$14 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $14 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $13 +$3 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $21 +$4 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$3 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$4 -69%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 +$6 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 −$5 -58%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$17 +817%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$2 -17%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$12 +229%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$3 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 +$5 +151%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 −$1 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 90% −$103
crypto 10% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 4m
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 5m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 35¢ $4 32m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju SELL Yes 32¢ $3 33m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 34¢ $4 40m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on Ju BUY Yes 56¢ $7 46m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 47m
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 32°C on June 12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 74-75°F on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Up 4¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 12? BUY Yes 40¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? BUY Yes 33¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C on June 12? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 12? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 4h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 31°C on June 12? BUY Yes 38¢ $4 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 34% -18.4%
≤30d 147 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 34% -18.4%
≤90d 147 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 34% -18.4%
all 147 -11.7% -20.1% 40% 34% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover89.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 34% -18.4%
10% ← realistic here -27.7% 29% -26.2%
15% -34.7% 24% -33.3%
20% -41.1% 20% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.76 · official $30.57 (match) · 378 history records