Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:28:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8D
0x8d0e…b56e
crypto · 12 markets active 1h ago
5.0score
+$6 +12%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$6 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses5 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)10 / 12
History coverage19d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown44%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 2 History 10 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals Sunrisers Hyderabad 18¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Up $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 31¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $21 +$1 +4%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $13 +$8 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET May 28 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +39%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $9 −$1 -7%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 67% +$8
other 21% −$1
crypto 12% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 100¢ $11 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 94¢ $10 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Royal Challengers Bengaluru 88¢ $10 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Royal Challengers Bengaluru 82¢ $10 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans SELL Gujarat Titans 16¢ $1 13d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans BUY Gujarat Titans 22¢ $1 13d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 100¢ $12 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Gujarat Titans 37¢ $0 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $2 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $1 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 38¢ $1 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Gujarat Titans 39¢ $1 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals SELL Rajasthan Royals 61¢ $9 15d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Rajasthan Royals 55¢ $8 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up $1 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $2 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $1 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 16d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $9 17d
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 18¢ $1 17d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 40% +1.8%
≤90d 10 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 40% +1.8%
all 10 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 40% +1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 40% +1.8%
10% -31.2% 40% -7.9%
15% -37.8% 30% -16.8%
20% -43.9% 20% -25.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.95 · official $1.95 (match) · 29 history records