trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? | Yes | 59¢ | 58¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-1%) |
| Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? | Yes | 12¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-4%) |
| Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals | Sunrisers Hyderabad | 18¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | Up | 3¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | Up | 31¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans | May 31 | $21 | +$1 | +4% |
| Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals | May 29 | $13 | +$8 | +63% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET | May 29 | $1 | $0 | +32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET | May 29 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET | May 28 | $1 | +$1 | +109% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET | May 28 | $1 | $0 | +39% |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | May 28 | $9 | −$1 | -7% |
| Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals | May 27 | $1 | −$1 | -98% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET | May 25 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 50% | 40% | +1.8% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 50% | 40% | +1.8% |
| all | 10 | -15.9% | -23.9% | 50% | 40% | +1.8% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -23.9% | 40% | +1.8% |
| 10% | -31.2% | 40% | -7.9% |
| 15% | -37.8% | 30% | -16.8% |
| 20% | -43.9% | 20% | -25.0% |