Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:33:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
8D 0x8d0c…a249 other 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 416d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$277 (+3%) realized +$321 · open −$44
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate58%14W / 10L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown95%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$627now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,056
7 days−$404
14 days−$404
30 days−$404
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 47% −$421
other 29% +$320
sports 14% +$1,039
politics 10% −$718
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 47% 47% -18.9%
≤30d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 47% 47% -18.9%
≤90d 15 +14.2% +3.3% 47% 47% -18.9%
all 24 +19.9% +8.5% 58% 58% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +8.5% 58% -6.3%
10% -1.9% 33% -15.2%
15% -11.4% 29% -23.4%
20% -20.1% 29% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +51% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$180 vs −$226 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

416d coverage
Net worth$627
Realized+$321
Unrealized−$44
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses14 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions6
Markets (closed)24 / 30
History coverage416d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown95%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $262 −$38 (-12%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $101 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $91 $87 −$4 (-4%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $86 $86 −$0 (-1%)
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $205 +$32 +16%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $203 +$156 +77%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $42 −$41 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $82 +$18 +22%
Will Lee Jun-seok be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 17 $250 −$172 -69%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 17 $546 −$546 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 17 $1,481 −$655 -44%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $202 +$111 +55%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $201 +$46 +23%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $103 −$5 -4%
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 16 $59 −$1 -1%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $102 +$57 +55%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $201 −$199 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $205 +$795 +388%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2025 meeting? Sep 11 $617 +$560 +91%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting? Jun 23 $968 +$215 +22%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-05-21? May 22 $78 +$11 +14%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? May 18 $703 −$542 -77%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? May 12 $177 +$280 +158%
Will Arsenal win the UEFA Champions League? May 07 $260 −$97 -37%
Will Chelsea finish in the top 4 of the EPL? May 05 $325 +$202 +62%
Will Newcastle United finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 02 $54 +$11 +21%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 30 $241 +$27 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $237 38m
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 1h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 91¢ $91 1h
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 86¢ $86 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $85 5h
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 41¢ $42 6h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $205 7h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 7h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 82¢ $82 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 26h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $102 26h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $248 26h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 50¢ $9 27h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 28h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $99 39h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? SELL Yes $1 39h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $0 43h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup? BUY Yes $1 43h
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? BUY Yes $2 43h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $58 43h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 53¢ $159 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $101 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $59 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 4d
Will South Korea be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $86 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $626.83 · official $626.83 (match) · 176 history records