Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:04:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
8D 0x8d0b…0ae7 other 31 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$183 (+23%) realized +$285 · open −$102
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR58%break-even
Win rate63%12W / 7L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$253now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$132
7 days+$231
14 days+$231
30 days+$221
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 92% +$63
crypto 3% +$15
world 3% −$10
sports 3% +$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)+11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +29.8% +17.4% 67% 61% +39.6%
≤30d 19 +23.0% +11.3% 63% 58% +36.4%
≤90d 19 +23.0% +11.3% 63% 58% +36.4%
all 19 +23.0% +11.3% 63% 58% +36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +11.3% 58% +36.4%
10% +0.6% 53% +23.4%
15% -9.1% 53% +11.5%
20% -18.0% 42% +0.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +40% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$11 · ×2.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.76 per $1 lost it wins $3.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$253
Realized+$285
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses12 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions12
Markets (closed)19 / 31
History coverage16d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 50¢ 30¢ $220 $129 −$91 (-41%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $30 $33 +$3 (+9%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 66¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No $20 $10 −$10 (-50%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 88¢ 84¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $9 −$1 (-9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$33 +163%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$23 +226%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $20 +$51 +250%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 05 $10 −$10 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $102 33m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $10 6h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 15h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 15h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 15h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 15h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 15h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 25h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No $10 25h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 38h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $20 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $31 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 37¢ $20 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $253.01 · official $252.92 (match) · 51 history records