Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:10:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d09…13a7 other 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 343d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$5
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$7
other 24% +$1
politics 23% $0
sports 10% +$1
economics 5% $0
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 15 +1.7% -7.9% 47% 7% -8.1%
≤90d 15 +1.7% -7.9% 47% 7% -8.1%
all 71 +0.4% -9.1% 32% 1% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 1% -8.9%
10% -17.8% 0% -17.6%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.53 per $1 lost it wins $4.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

343d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage343d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 76¢ 78¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $38 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 +$1 +5%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $11 −$1 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $87 +$5 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $6 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $67 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2 $0 +22%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 08 $17 +$1 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $1 $0 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $33 $0 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $34 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $33 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 10 $110 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 10 $11 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $220 in July? Aug 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? Aug 10 $119 +$1 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair in 2025? Aug 02 $24 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 02 $28 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Aug 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 01 $10 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Aug 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 01 $23 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 31 $11 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 31 $11 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 29 $11 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by less than $250b between Q4 2024 and Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 25% on August 15? Jul 27 $6 $0 -1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Jul 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Jim Walden win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 26 $6 $0 -0%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk by July 31? Jul 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $140K in July? Jul 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 25 $7 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $39 1h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $38 7d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $38 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $19 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $18 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $2 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $4 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 23¢ $10 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 25¢ $11 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $42 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $42 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes $4 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $2 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $9 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $8 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $3 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 12d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $6 12d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $34 13d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $36 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.52 · official $39.52 (match) · 204 history records