Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d09…143f weather 425 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (120 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30,876 (+11%) realized +$30,726 · open +$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate58%240W / 174L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$643per market
Trades / day120.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% +$9,095
crypto 3% +$3,627
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (120 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 +22.0% +10.4% 29% 22% +59.9%
≤30d 414 +23.3% +11.5% 58% 18% -5.2%
≤90d 414 +23.3% +11.5% 58% 18% -5.2%
all 414 +23.3% +11.5% 58% 18% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover120.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +11.5% 18% -5.2%
10% +0.9% 14% -14.3%
15% ← realistic here -8.9% 12% -22.6%
20% -17.8% 12% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$523) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +30% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$17 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.26 per $1 lost it wins $5.26
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$30,726
Unrealized+$150
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses240 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions11
Markets (closed)414 / 425
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$643
Trades / day120.4
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 414 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? Yes 23¢ 52¢ $74 $168 +$94 (+127%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? Yes 19¢ 44¢ $29 $68 +$39 (+132%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $17 $20 +$4 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $7 $16 +$9 (+129%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+183%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+17%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $1 $2 +$2 (+200%)
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? Jun 17 $89 +$127 +143%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $16 −$15 -93%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $39 +$70 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? Jun 16 $24 −$19 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $51 −$43 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $109 +$6 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 16? Jun 16 $12 −$7 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 15? Jun 15 $135 −$114 -84%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$727 +1805%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $29 −$28 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 15? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 32°C on June 15? Jun 15 $366 +$115 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 14 Jun 14 $5 −$3 -66%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $17 −$17 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $24 +$152 +635%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 27°C or below on June 14? Jun 14 $0 $0 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $224 +$557 +249%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $38 −$31 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $29 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 13? Jun 13 $15 −$14 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $478 +$383 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 13? Jun 13 $35 −$26 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $281 +$16 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $58 +$207 +357%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 −$24 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $6 +$47 +766%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $26 −$25 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C or below on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $742 +$314 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$10 -80%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$8 -64%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$17 -70%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $6 −$4 -66%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $216 19m
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 17? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 17? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C or below on June 17? BUY No 40¢ $89 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 17? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 17? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 17? BUY Yes 23¢ $77 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $35 3h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on June 16? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 19h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 50¢ $13 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 14¢ $7 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 20h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.37 · official $319.91 · 3500 history records