Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:10:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8D 0x8d06…f00f other 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$46 (-12%) realized −$29 · open −$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate42%17W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$41
sports 31% −$5
world 6% −$21
crypto 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)+4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +15.0% +4.0% 42% 38% -28.6%
≤30d 40 +15.0% +4.0% 42% 38% -28.6%
≤90d 40 +15.0% +4.0% 42% 38% -28.6%
all 40 +15.0% +4.0% 42% 38% -28.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.0% 38% -28.6%
10% ← realistic here -5.9% 28% -35.4%
15% -15.0% 22% -41.6%
20% -23.3% 22% -47.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized−$29
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses17 / 23
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions28
Markets (closed)40 / 68
History coverage4d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) France 97¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) Austria 98¢ 97¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? No 94¢ 94¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? No 89¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Iraq 41¢ 42¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 46¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Under 41¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 29¢ 28¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 43¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+6%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$1 +22%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +74%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 16 $2 +$16 +777%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 Egypt? Jun 16 $2 +$15 +704%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +20%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 +$8 +149%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 +$2 +121%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$23 +437%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +53%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +17%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $17 −$17 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +112%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $2 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 4h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $5 4h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) BUY Austria 98¢ $10 4h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 29¢ $5 4h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 43¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 89¢ $10 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 8h
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $5 8h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $5 8h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 94¢ $10 8h
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) BUY France 97¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 9h
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.08 · official $106.09 (match) · 96 history records