Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:02:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
8D 0x8d06…7910 sports 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialistFading edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24,990 (+36%) realized +$24,990 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate51%35W / 34L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$981per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$877est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,581
7 days+$26,012
14 days+$28,611
30 days+$30,533
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$36,643
world 8% −$4,001
other 7% −$2,309
crypto 5% +$1,843
tech 1% +$673
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +7.7% -2.5% 34% 34% +30.1%
≤30d 53 +23.6% +11.8% 45% 45% +33.3%
≤90d 69 +33.0% +20.3% 51% 49% +33.9%
all 69 +33.0% +20.3% 51% 49% +33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 49% +33.9%
10% +8.8% 49% +21.1%
15% -1.7% 49% +9.4%
20% -11.4% 48% -1.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +48% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$930) neutral
Persistence
early +93% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,575 vs −$655 · ×2.4 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.47 per $1 lost it wins $2.47
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$24,990
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses35 / 34
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$877
Open positions0
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage44d
Avg bet$981
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 69 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $510 +$1,156 +226%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $2,032 +$2,261 +111%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $1,040 +$1,560 +150%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $489 −$459 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,002 +$1,142 +114%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $205 −$205 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira Jun 17 $512 +$2,250 +439%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $508 +$492 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $506 +$327 +65%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,012 +$655 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 +$402 +79%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5,368 −$3,908 -73%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $16,425 +$23,636 +144%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
SpVgg Greuther Fürth vs. TSV Fortuna 95 Düsseldorf: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $202 −$202 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $669 −$145 -22%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $284 −$284 -100%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5) Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-12? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will OGC Nice win on 2026-05-10? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will AJ Auxerre vs. OGC Nice end in a draw? Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Spread: Russia (-1.5) Jun 16 $505 −$505 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 16 $255 −$255 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 16 $506 −$506 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Jun 16 $509 −$509 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 16 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 16 $1,012 −$1,012 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 16 $1,014 −$1,014 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 16 $460 −$460 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,017 −$1,017 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-6.5) Jun 16 $1,321 −$1,321 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Côte d'Ivoi Jun 15 $205 +$2,204 +1073%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $508 +$579 +114%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $8,182 +$7,940 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $930 −$930 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $1,259 +$2,775 +220%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $606 −$323 -53%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $4,513 −$3,916 -87%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $506 +$371 +73%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $1,519 +$1,109 +73%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 06 $1,015 +$967 +95%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 05 $507 +$472 +93%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 05 $49 +$50 +101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 May 30 $506 +$327 +65%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 May 24 $506 +$371 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $192 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $848 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 30¢ $510 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $1,016 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 32¢ $255 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 31¢ $234 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $1,016 3h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $1,002 14h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $205 28h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 60¢ $1,012 37h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 37h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $506 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $507 37h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 AND Ira BUY 18¢ $512 38h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $523 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 47¢ $524 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $669 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 33¢ $668 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 38¢ $790 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $793 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 39¢ $49 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $16,377 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $4,055 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 53¢ $507 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $1,012 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $507 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Belgium vs. Egypt: BUY 11¢ $205 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Côte d'Ivoi BUY 8¢ $205 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $508 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 188 history records