Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:26:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8D 0x8d06…f79d sports 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$4,154 (+17%) realized +$3,473 · open +$681
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate68%13W / 6L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$1,185per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$301est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$2,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$4,848
other 13% +$435
crypto 1% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)+9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +20.5% +9.1% 68% 63% +12.3%
≤30d 19 +20.5% +9.1% 68% 63% +12.3%
≤90d 19 +20.5% +9.1% 68% 63% +12.3%
all 19 +20.5% +9.1% 68% 63% +12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +9.1% 63% +12.3%
10% ← realistic here -1.4% 53% +1.5%
15% -10.9% 47% -8.3%
20% -19.6% 42% -17.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 37% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +22% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$1,774) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +8% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$792 vs −$927 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$2,684
Realized+$3,473
Unrealized+$681
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses13 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$301
Open positions2
Markets (closed)19 / 21
History coverage2d
Avg bet$1,185
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $1,000 $1,440 +$440 (+44%)
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Morocco 31¢ 38¢ $1,003 $1,244 +$241 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $507 +$483 +95%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $665 +$1,199 +180%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $1,013 +$97 +10%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,068 +105%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $511 −$500 -98%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,686 +$520 +19%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) Jun 19 $101 +$32 +32%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $2,255 +$299 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $206 +$137 +66%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,016 +$1,112 +109%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $901 +$684 +76%
Spread: Canada (-3.5) Jun 19 $2,005 +$958 +48%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $2,996 +$2,579 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,798 −$1,774 -99%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,019 −$650 -64%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1,000 −$523 -52%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,133 −$1,117 -99%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $997 +$1,136 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 51¢ $3 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,013 1h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 31¢ $1,021 1h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime SELL Felix Auger-Aliassime 65¢ $1,110 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $507 3h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 35¢ $665 5h
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 58¢ $1,013 5h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina BUY Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 30¢ $511 5h
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniel Altmaier 48¢ $1,016 6h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 100¢ $3,205 7h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 83¢ $2,686 8h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) SELL Zverev 100¢ $133 8h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $2,553 8h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon BUY Alexander Zverev 88¢ $2,255 10h
Set Handicap: Zverev (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5) BUY Zverev 75¢ $101 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $103 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 10h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz BUY Ben Shelton 41¢ $1,018 13h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 47¢ $1,016 22h
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 56¢ $901 23h
Spread: Canada (-3.5) BUY Canada 67¢ $2,005 24h
Spread: Canada (-1.5) BUY Canada 53¢ $2,996 26h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $1,798 26h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 14¢ $369 27h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 37¢ $1,019 28h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) SELL Czechia 20¢ $449 29h
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 42¢ $1,000 31h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,133 34h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 46¢ $997 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,683.90 · official $2,602.02 · 42 history records