Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:46:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
8D 0x8d01…0f69 sports 69 markets active 1h ago coverage 105d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$57 (+9%) realized +$56 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate61%38W / 24L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$154now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$73
14 days+$65
30 days+$65
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$41
world 37% +$8
other 7% +$10
tech 4% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 +12.3% +1.6% 69% 63% +5.9%
≤30d 61 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 56% +3.2%
≤90d 61 +2.9% -6.9% 62% 56% +3.2%
all 62 +1.2% -8.4% 61% 55% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 55% +2.9%
10% -17.2% 42% -6.9%
15% -25.2% 24% -15.9%
20% -32.5% 18% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.38 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.18 per $1 lost it wins $2.18
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

105d coverage
Net worth$154
Realized+$56
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses38 / 24
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)62 / 69
History coverage105d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 58¢ 54¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $40 $44 +$4 (+10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 72¢ 82¢ $35 $39 +$4 (+13%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 65¢ 56¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-13%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? No 66¢ 85¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+29%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 49¢ 38¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-21%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 31¢ 18¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? Jun 17 $25 +$5 +21%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $20 +$8 +40%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $2 −$1 -50%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +117%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $20 +$5 +25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 +$6 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $3 −$1 -43%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$1 -25%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $25 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$2 +30%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $5 +$1 +29%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $7 +$3 +49%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 −$9 -90%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $3 $0 +5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $3 −$3 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $7 −$2 -30%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $4 +$1 +22%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$2 -19%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $8 +$1 +18%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +59%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$2 -71%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $7 +$2 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$2 -33%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$1 +28%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$8 +206%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $4 +$2 +46%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $3 +$2 +62%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +93%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +33%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $30 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 82¢ $5 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $1 4h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 25¢ $2 5h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 48¢ $10 5h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $10 6h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $20 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 68¢ $5 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 8h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 46¢ $5 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 17h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $5 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? BUY No 66¢ $5 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $10 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 16, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $25 21h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 22h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $20 25h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $20 25h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $25 28h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 32¢ $2 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 21¢ $3 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 55¢ $3 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 29h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $3 29h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.44 · official $154.45 (match) · 151 history records