Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:52:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cf9…3422 other 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 218d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%3W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit52%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$9
other 35% −$3
culture 8% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-22.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 4 +0.9% -8.7% 75% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 -6.9% -15.8% 43% 0% -10.7%
all 27 -14.3% -22.5% 11% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.5% 0% -10.9%
10% -29.9% 0% -19.4%
15% -36.6% 0% -27.2%
20% -42.9% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 78% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

218d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses3 / 24
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage218d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit52%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $35 $0 -0%
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? May 26 $7 $0 +1%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 24 $6 $0 +2%
Exact Score: AC Monza 3 - 2 SS Juve Stabia? May 20 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $59 −$1 -1%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 10 $1 $0 -20%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 29 $2 −$1 -31%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 18 $47 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 07 $38 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 26 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 18 $69 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 06 $1 $0 -40%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 28 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Dec 17 $52 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 27 $1 $0 -20%
Will Bam Adebayo win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Nov 25 $54 −$4 -8%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 24 $1 $0 -6%
Will No Other Choice win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 22 $70 $0 -0%
Bills vs. Texans: O/U 43.5 Nov 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 20 $68 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 16 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Gold close at $3,200 or more at the end of 2025? Nov 14 $3 −$1 -40%
Macron out in 2025? Nov 12 $134 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $35 1h
Will Sung-Jae Im win the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson? BUY No 99¢ $7 28d
Exact Score: AC Monza 3 - 2 SS Juve Stabia? BUY No 99¢ $5 28d
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o BUY Yes 98¢ $6 28d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $35 56d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $58 58d
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $59 66d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes $1 68d
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes $1 76d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee SELL No $2 79d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY No $2 87d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $47 90d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $47 97d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 101d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $38 107d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 111d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 117d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $42 120d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $42 127d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 130d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 138d
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $69 149d
Will Valencia win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY No 100¢ $69 156d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 161d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 167d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 170d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 178d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 181d
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 190d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $60 192d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 119 history records