Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:52:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
8C 0x8cf7…7592 world 65 markets active 0h ago coverage 335d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+0%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%27W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$28
14 days+$26
30 days+$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$28
politics 22% +$5
other 12% −$24
economics 11% −$4
sports 11% +$3
culture 3% −$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
weather 0% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.0% -6.8% 75% 8% -8.0%
≤30d 29 -0.8% -10.2% 52% 3% -8.6%
≤90d 39 -1.0% -10.4% 44% 3% -9.1%
all 65 -1.8% -11.2% 42% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.1%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

335d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses27 / 38
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)65 / 65
History coverage335d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 65 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $110 −$1 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $4 $0 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $45 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 16 $267 +$10 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 16 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $307 +$3 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $83 +$6 +8%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $123 +$3 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $105 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $337 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $54 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 08 $50 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $92 −$1 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $10 $0 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $2 −$1 -53%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $100 +$1 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $7 −$1 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $92 +$2 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 28 $39 +$1 +4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 28 $83 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $92 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 26 $106 −$5 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $39 +$4 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 24 $5 $0 -4%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 24 $83 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $9 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $99 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $75 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $48 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 20 $709 +$6 +1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $362 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $644 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $458 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 19 $711 −$2 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 17 $16 −$1 -8%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 17 $35 −$3 -8%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 14 $190 −$1 -0%
Jaylen Wells: Rebounds O/U 3.5 Mar 12 $206 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $128 −$15 -11%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 08 $9 $0 +0%
South Korea First Lady Keon-hee arrested in 2025? Aug 14 $6 $0 +4%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 14 $3 $0 -14%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will H win the most seats in the next Norwegian parliamentary election Aug 12 $68 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia? Aug 12 $35 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $40 28m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $55 28m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $20 28m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $75 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $34 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $74 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $35 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $110 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $4 20h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes $4 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $45 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $30 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 36h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 77¢ $87 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $69 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 77¢ $18 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $89 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $64 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $19 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $80 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 93¢ $24 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $103 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes $7 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes $1 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $113 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $110 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $68 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records