Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:15:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
8C 0x8cf7…1958 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$223 (-11%) realized −$220 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%43W / 47L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day12.2pace
Fees−$27est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$51
7 days−$389
14 days−$255
30 days−$243
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$264
other 3% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 +1.5% -8.2% 43% 40% -36.1%
≤30d 90 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 46% -20.7%
≤90d 90 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 46% -20.7%
all 90 +1.8% -7.9% 48% 46% -20.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 46% -20.7%
10% -16.7% 40% -28.3%
15% -24.7% 38% -35.2%
20% -32.1% 29% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$17 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$220
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses43 / 47
Est. fees paid−$27
Open positions3
Markets (closed)90 / 93
History coverage16d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day12.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 90 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jordan 56¢ 50¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 55¢ $8 $8 +$1 (+9%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 14¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $10 −$3 -34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$3 -32%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 +$6 +38%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 $0 -7%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$11 +344%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $4 +$6 +155%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $5 −$4 -74%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $81 +$32 +39%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 +$1 +9%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 +$4 +26%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 +$9 +60%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$2 -17%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 +$1 +10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$1 -10%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $5 −$4 -74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 −$2 -22%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $13 −$6 -43%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 +$1 +12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $6 −$5 -86%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs T1 (+2.5) Jun 14 $5 +$3 +65%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $10 +$15 +146%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $5 +$11 +206%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $8 +$5 +64%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -36%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $7 −$6 -81%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$2 -39%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$4 +54%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $6 +$2 +34%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$5 +92%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$37 +712%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$3 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$31 +152%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $91 −$91 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $201 −$201 -100%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $30 −$16 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Jordan 39¢ $5 39m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $8 40m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 40¢ $2 40m
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 1h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 56¢ $30 1h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 69¢ $2 5h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 63¢ $3 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) SELL Iraq 82¢ $5 5h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Iraq 69¢ $10 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 14¢ $0 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 41¢ $4 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 30¢ $2 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 63¢ $5 6h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 30¢ $2 6h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 81¢ $6 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 41¢ $10 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $20 7h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 73¢ $1 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 62¢ $1 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $0 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 67¢ $8 8h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 65¢ $6 8h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 76¢ $6 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $2 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 77¢ $8 9h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL Senegal 80¢ $12 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 59¢ $5 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.09 · official $29.36 (match) · 257 history records