Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:13:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
8C 0x8cf2…5da0 sports 18 markets active 3h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$558 (-7%) realized −$554 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +70% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +48% what you keep after slip
Net edge+48%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$443per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$302
14 days−$468
30 days−$468
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$383
other 1% −$90
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)+53.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +91.8% +73.6% 58% 58% -13.5%
≤30d 17 +69.9% +53.7% 59% 59% -15.1%
≤90d 17 +69.9% +53.7% 59% 59% -15.1%
all 17 +69.9% +53.7% 59% 59% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +53.7% 59% -15.1%
10% +39.0% 53% -23.2%
15% +25.6% 53% -30.6%
20% +13.3% 53% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 67% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +70% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +69% → late +70% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$420 vs −$666 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$554
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage8d
Avg bet$443
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Over 29¢ 28¢ $225 $222 −$4 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $85 +$146 +172%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 21 $614 −$600 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $209 +$489 +234%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 20 $114 −$111 -97%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $99 +$15 +15%
Panama leading at halftime? Jun 17 $92 −$90 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $11 +$80 +711%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,327 −$3,267 -98%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $1,507 +$1,827 +121%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $533 +$976 +183%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $202 +$333 +165%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $162 −$158 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$59 +58%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $76 +$86 +114%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $346 −$339 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $163 +$185 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 29¢ $230 3h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY Egypt 36¢ $85 10h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 24¢ $614 16h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $209 32h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $102 36h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 11¢ $114 39h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 SELL Over 37¢ $114 39h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 31¢ $99 45h
Panama leading at halftime? BUY Yes 24¢ $92 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $92 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 12¢ $11 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $3,327 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 99¢ $3,333 5d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 44¢ $1,507 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 84¢ $1,509 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 29¢ $533 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $535 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $202 5d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 21¢ $162 7d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $76 7d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $346 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $347 7d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $163 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $160 7d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 62¢ $101 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.53 · official $221.61 (match) · 29 history records