Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8cf0…f792 weather 620 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (66 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+0%) realized +$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate95%583W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day65.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$16
14 days−$32
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% $0
other 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (66 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 -0.9% -10.4% 94% 3% -10.3%
≤30d 616 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 1% -9.5%
≤90d 616 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 1% -9.5%
all 616 -0.6% -10.1% 95% 1% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.1% 1% -9.5%
10% ← realistic here -18.7% 1% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses583 / 33
Open positions4
Markets (closed)616 / 620
History coverage27d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day65.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 616 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17? No 97¢ 100¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? No 98¢ 95¢ $7 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 16 $7 $0 +3%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $49 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 76-77°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 16 $11 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 65°F or below on June Jun 16 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 16 Jun 16 $7 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 16 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 16? Jun 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 16 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 15 $6 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 74-75°F on June Jun 15 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C or higher on June 15 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 15 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 32°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 78-79°F on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on June 15? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 14? Jun 15 $11 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on June 14? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $7 0m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $10 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 3h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? SELL No 99¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $2 4h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 7h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $7 8h
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C or higher on June 17 BUY No 97¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $2 9h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C or higher on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $7 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju SELL Yes 70¢ $4 10h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $51 11h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? SELL No 99¢ $5 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $0 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.10 · official $27.10 (match) · 1862 history records