Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:13:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
8C 0x8ced…15f9 other 181 markets active 1h ago coverage 235d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$92 (-12%) realized −$103 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate25%44W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$122now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$45
sports 21% +$22
politics 9% −$34
world 7% −$4
finance 3% −$11
crypto 1% −$5
tech 1% −$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -4.2% -13.3% 27% 27% -25.0%
≤30d 23 -17.7% -25.6% 22% 22% -28.9%
≤90d 88 -18.6% -26.3% 25% 23% -24.4%
all 173 -21.3% -28.8% 25% 24% -25.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 24% -25.8%
10% -35.6% 22% -32.9%
15% -41.8% 21% -39.4%
20% -47.5% 19% -45.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.94 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

235d coverage
Net worth$122
Realized−$103
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses44 / 129
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions8
Markets (closed)173 / 181
History coverage235d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 173 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 100¢ $3 $18 +$15 (+490%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $3 $3 +$0 (+5%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-7%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-14%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 83 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 +$3 +97%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +249%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 −$4 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $4 $0 -5%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 10 $6 −$1 -12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $14 −$2 -12%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $12 +$7 +55%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of June? Jun 05 $2 −$1 -70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $4 +$5 +116%
Will François Asselineau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presiden May 29 $5 −$1 -14%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele May 29 $3 $0 -11%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? May 27 $4 −$3 -65%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $6 −$5 -81%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 16 $2 −$2 -74%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 10 $11 +$1 +8%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 06 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $3 −$3 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $3 +$10 +325%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? May 01 $2 −$1 -56%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Apr 29 $3 +$4 +140%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Apr 20 $2 +$1 +65%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? Apr 20 $2 $0 -11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 14 $11 −$6 -58%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Apr 14 $4 −$2 -54%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 09 $3 −$3 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 08 $9 +$2 +28%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $4 +$16 +396%
Will Sporting CP vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 07 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 1h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $2 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $1 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 22¢ $1 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $3 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 29h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 29h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $5 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? BUY Yes $3 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $4 3d
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 4d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 4d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $82 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 58¢ $5 4d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 5d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $4 5d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $54 5d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $20 5d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 47¢ $5 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $122.04 · official $122.04 (match) · 383 history records