Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:40:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8cec…6410
other · 67 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$11 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$11 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses5 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage366d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 1 History 66 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 25? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $82 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $253 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 14 $82 $0 -0%
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Feb 01 $81 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? Jan 27 $83 $0 +0%
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? Jan 25 $81 $0 +0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 21 $80 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 18 $82 $0 -0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 10 $168 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 07 $82 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 06 $1 $0 -20%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 05 $84 $0 -0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $83 $0 +0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jan 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 27 $168 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 25? Dec 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 25 $3 $0 -10%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 22 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 20 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $83 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 08 $174 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 06 $83 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $83 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $172 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Jets win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $169 $0 -0%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Nov 18 $85 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 12 $87 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $87 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $87 $0 -0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 01 $176 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $88 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 16 $88 $0 -0%
Will FIT-U hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following th Oct 12 $1 $0 -30%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 11 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 07 $88 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $88 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 02 $89 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $86 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 26 $180 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 24 $86 $0 +0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 20 $88 $0 -0%
Will West Ham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 18 $89 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 14 $87 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 10 $87 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 08 $94 −$1 -0%
Will Brentford win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 06 $87 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% −$5
politics 33% −$3
sports 18% −$1
culture 7% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $81 1h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $82 12d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $84 21d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $82 35d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $82 97d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $82 118d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $82 125d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $81 131d
Will Nottm Forest win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $81 135d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 26? BUY No 100¢ $83 137d
Will Netflix say "Warner Bros" during earnings call? BUY Yes 100¢ $81 141d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $80 142d
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $80 144d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 145d
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 100¢ $82 148d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $83 149d
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $83 152d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $83 153d
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $83 155d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $82 156d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $82 157d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 157d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 158d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $84 158d
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $84 160d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 161d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $1 162d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL Yes 1¢ $0 163d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY Yes 1¢ $1 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 66 -3.5% -12.7% 8% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 0% -18.3%
15% -28.7% 0% -26.2%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.03 · official $6.03 (match) · 325 history records