Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:38:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

8C
0x8ceb…1952
crypto · 1709 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$300 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$365 · open −$65
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$420
Realized+$365
Unrealized−$65
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses1509 / 199
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1708 / 1709
History coverage65d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day28.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%
Chart Positions 1 History 1708 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$298
7 days+$423
14 days+$1,405
30 days+$1,651
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? Up 86¢ 74¢ $484 $420 −$65 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Down 97¢ 0¢ $23 $0 −$23 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Up 85¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-02? Yes 95¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Down 99¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6PM ET Up 95¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11PM ET Up 88¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9PM ET Up 87¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Monza: Dino Prizmic vs Valentin Royer Valentin Royer 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4PM ET Up 91¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-02? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3PM ET Down 89¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12AM ET Down 92¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 10AM ET Up 89¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5PM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4AM ET Down 90¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Sarasota: Daniil Glinka vs Andres Andrade Daniil Glinka 10¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 8AM ET Up 86¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12AM ET Down 87¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 2AM ET Down 96¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 5PM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $804 +$55 +7%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $543 +$100 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $405 +$76 +19%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $442 +$50 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $502 +$27 +5%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $545 +$147 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $504 +$57 +11%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $841 +$33 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? Jun 08 $602 +$35 +6%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? Jun 07 $342 −$300 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? Jun 06 $502 +$30 +6%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $603 +$96 +16%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $643 +$99 +15%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $442 +$69 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? Jun 03 $409 +$175 +43%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $446 +$225 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 2? Jun 02 $402 +$24 +6%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $300 +$17 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 02 $442 +$59 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $401 +$16 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31? Jun 01 $404 +$56 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 30? May 30 $307 +$134 +44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $301 +$17 +6%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 29? May 29 $643 +$92 +14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $277 +$62 +22%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $543 +$73 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7PM ET May 27 $31 −$31 -99%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $303 +$77 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1PM ET May 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12PM ET May 27 $30 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $300 +$6 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11AM ET May 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9AM ET May 27 $30 +$4 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 27 $31 −$31 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $30 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5AM ET May 27 $31 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4AM ET May 27 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3AM ET May 27 $30 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12AM ET May 27 $30 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11PM ET May 27 $30 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10PM ET May 27 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7PM ET May 27 $30 +$4 +12%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $742 +$39 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1PM ET May 26 $31 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12PM ET May 26 $29 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $607 −$279 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9AM ET May 26 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8AM ET May 26 $30 +$4 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 76% −$496
finance 20% +$1,407
other 4% −$391
sports 1% −$221
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 86¢ $487 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 95¢ $301 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 92¢ $503 2h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY No 85¢ $100 20h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 98¢ $40 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 85¢ $202 25h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 83¢ $503 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 81¢ $203 28h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 97¢ $40 46h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 10? BUY Down 89¢ $402 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 93¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? BUY Up 95¢ $401 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 95¢ $40 2d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 77¢ $505 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 9? BUY Down 89¢ $504 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 95¢ $40 3d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 91¢ $201 4d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 98¢ $600 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 8? BUY Up 94¢ $602 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 12¢ $0 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? SELL Yes 11¢ $42 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-07? BUY Yes 87¢ $342 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 6? BUY Up 94¢ $502 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 100¢ $40 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? BUY Down 86¢ $603 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 99¢ $40 7d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 4? BUY Up 86¢ $603 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 99¢ $40 8d
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 85¢ $402 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 3? BUY Down 68¢ $409 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +4.3% -5.6% 93% 50% -3.9%
≤30d 438 +0.2% -9.4% 94% 22% -4.0%
≤90d 1708 -4.9% -14.0% 88% 25% -8.9%
all 1708 -4.9% -14.0% 88% 25% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover28.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 25% -8.9%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 1% -17.6%
15% -29.7% 1% -25.6%
20% -36.6% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $419.71 · official $419.71 (match) · 3500 history records